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👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance
📉 Williams cooled October: the Fed’s number 2 saw “no need for urgency”, and odds of an October rise fell from above 70% to about 50%.
💾 Micron’s $50 billion quarter: the $1.2 trillion memory maker reports after the US close, with options pricing a move of about 7.7% either way.
🛢️ Gulf oil is getting out: Middle East crude exports hit a wartime high of 16.33 million barrels a day, and Brent fell 2.6%.
💳 FICO lost a quarter: Fair Isaac fell 26.5% on Tuesday after rival VantageScore won equal footing on mortgage pricing and kept its $0.99 price.
🪙 Bitcoin’s best quarter since 2024: it is up 42% since the end of June, and fund inflows ran to 9 straight days before slowing sharply.
🇪🇺 Europe’s inflation jumped: France, Italy and Spain all came in above forecasts in September, and the euro hit its lowest since May 2025.
🇬🇧 Britain grew faster: second-quarter GDP was revised up to 0.5% from 0.4%, and business investment rose 1.8% on the quarter.
🤖 AI bosses pledge self-policing: leaders of 6 tech firms signed a voluntary White House accord, as OpenAI reportedly seeks $30 billion.
🚢 Carnival rose more than 13%: record revenue of $8.44 billion beat forecasts even with fuel at $826 a ton, up from $607.
🔍 Inflation gets a new ruler: August PCE lands with a 5-year rewrite, and the Cheat Sheet shows which number to judge in the first minute.
🧠 One Big Thing
So here is where the Fed stands this morning. On Monday, futures put the chance of another US rate rise on 28 October above 70%. By Wednesday morning in Asia it was about 50%, after New York Fed President John Williams said there was “no need for urgency” and American consumer confidence fell to its lowest since 2014. The number that settles it is August’s PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, and it lands at 1:30pm UK, 8:30am in New York. A hot core reading puts October back in play. A soft one points to December.
⚖️ Fear & Greed
📉 The Number That Matters
81.9
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 81.9 in September, its lowest since 2014. In the same month, S&P Global’s flash survey showed US business activity growing at its fastest pace since July 2021.
⚔️ Winners vs Losers
Winners
CAPR 0.00%↑ : +14.58% Capricor Therapeutics, Inc. shares jumped after new HOPE-3 open-label extension data at the World Muscle Society Congress showed Duchenne patients who switched from placebo to deramiocel saw 76% slower upper-limb decline. The update lands ahead of the FDA’s November 22 decision on the cell therapy.
NAUT 0.00%↑ : +11.72% Nautilus Biotechnology, Inc. shares extended Tuesday’s 23% surge after Roth Capital initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a price target implying more than 150% upside, backing its AI-powered proteomics platform.
Losers
CNXC 0.00%↑ : -9.77% Concentrix Corporation shares fell after third-quarter revenue missed estimates and the company guided fourth-quarter sales down 3% to 5% in constant currency as two hyperscaler clients ended support arrangements early. A goodwill impairment of more than 1 billion dollars pushed it to a GAAP loss, overshadowing an adjusted earnings beat.
MRNA 0.00%↑ : -5.88% Moderna, Inc. shares slid after Citi downgraded the stock to Sell and flagged roughly 60% downside, arguing its cancer vaccine-fuelled rally has priced in unrealistic sales. The stock has surged more than ninefold from its 52-week low.
📊 Market Snapshot
Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin (BTC): $83,691 (▲ 0.08%)
Ethereum (ETH): $2,687 (▲ 0.39%)
XRP: $1.51 (▲ 1.17%)
Equity Indices (Futures):
S&P 500: 7,730 (▼ 0.02%)
NASDAQ 100: 30,569 (▼ 0.14%)
FTSE 100: 10,645 (▼ 0.12%)
Commodities & Bonds:
10-Year US Treasury Yield: 5.24% (▲ 0.04%)
Oil (WTI): $91 (▲ 2.00%)
Gold: $4,179 (▲ 0.02%)
Silver: $60.65 (▼ 1.31%)
Data as of: UK: 12:12 BST / US: 07:12 EDT / Asia (Tokyo): 20:12 JST
✅ 5 Things to Know
📉 The Fed’s number 2 cooled October hike bets
“No need for urgency.” New York Fed President John Williams said that in Buffalo on Tuesday, 13 days after the Fed raised rates. Williams is vice chair of the committee that sets US interest rates, and he said the Fed can “gather more information” first. He still sees one more rise “late this year”, which many read as December rather than the 28 October meeting. He expects inflation of 3.5% this year, and he now sees energy prices pushing it up for longer than he thought in the spring. Yahoo Finance
Tuesday’s data pointed the same way. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 81.9 in September from a revised 88.6, its lowest since April 2014. Economists had forecast 89.2. For only the second time since the question began 4 years ago, more households called their own finances bad than good. Job openings fell to 7.08 million in August, against 7.23 million forecast. That leaves about 1 opening for every unemployed American. Investing.com
Not everyone at the Fed agrees. Governor Michael Barr said in Detroit that “further policy adjustments are likely to be needed”. Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee said that 5.5 years above the 2% target “is playing with fire”.
Traders sided with Williams.
Futures priced the chance of an October rise at 71% before Williams spoke, and about 50% by Wednesday morning in Asia, Reuters reported. The 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.61% on Tuesday, its highest since 2002, before easing overnight.
So what settles it? August’s PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, lands at 1:30pm UK, 8:30am in New York. Forecasts have core prices up 0.3% on the month. Headline forecasts run from 0.3% to 0.5%, depending on the poll. The same release carries the government’s annual revision, which rewrites the figures back to 2021, so July’s numbers can change as well. September payrolls follow on Friday, with about 100,000 jobs expected, and the Fed decides on 28 October.
Sensei’s Insight: Williams sits in the chair’s inner circle, so I read “no need for urgency” as the leadership talking. That puts the whole weight on this afternoon’s PCE. A core reading of 0.4% or more would bring October straight back into play, whatever Williams said.
💾 Micron’s $50 billion quarter lands after the US close
$50 billion. That is the revenue Micron told investors to expect for the quarter it reports after the US close, give or take $1 billion. The same quarter a year earlier brought in $11.32 billion. The company also guided to a gross margin of about 86% and earnings of $31 a share. Analysts polled by Benzinga expect $31.50 a share on $51.13 billion of revenue. The shares closed up 1.05% at $1,065.08 on Tuesday, for a company worth about $1.2 trillion. Benzinga
Why does one memory maker matter? Micron makes the memory chips that AI data centres are built with, so its forecast for next quarter is a read on spending across the whole AI build-out. Options prices imply a move of about 7.7% either way after the numbers, according to GuruFocus. The results arrive 2 days after chip stocks fell on OpenAI’s second training pause. The call starts at 4:30pm in New York, which is 9:30pm UK.
The buyers are feeling the price. Apple’s new chief executive, John Ternus, is planning small-scale layoffs and cancelling some projects as memory costs rise, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday. Yahoo Finance
Sensei’s Insight: Micron guided to more than 4 times last year’s revenue for the same quarter. What I am watching is the gross margin guide for next quarter. A figure in the mid-80s says memory prices are still rising. Anything lower would say the peak is in.
🛢️ Gulf oil found a way out without a deal
Middle East crude exports rebounded to 16.33 million barrels a day in September, the most since the war began, ship-tracking data from Kpler showed on Monday. Saudi Arabia has resumed loadings at Yanbu, its Red Sea port, after restarting the East-West pipeline that carries crude across the country and away from the Strait of Hormuz. Brent settled down 2.6% at $102.59 a barrel on Tuesday. West Texas crude fell 3.5% to $89.38, then rose 2% to about $91 by midday UK on Wednesday. Euronext
How close to normal is that? JPMorgan put the region’s crude exports at 17.5 million barrels a day in a note on Tuesday, which is 98% of pre-war levels. Exports of refined fuels such as diesel sit at 58%. Goldman Sachs puts total flows, including tankers sailing with their trackers switched off, in line with the 2025 average. Energy Connects
Diplomacy is moving more slowly. Qatar delivered Washington’s response to Iran’s 7-day proposal to Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Doha on Tuesday night, and the main dispute is still the order of steps, Reuters reported. OPEC+ meets online on Sunday 4 October, and sources expect its output targets to stay steady. Weekly US oil inventory figures land at 3:30pm UK, 10:30am in New York.
Why does it matter beyond oil? Energy has been one of the biggest forces behind this year’s inflation, and it is one of the reasons Williams gave for expecting prices to stay high for longer.
Sensei’s Insight: The price fell on supply, without a deal. Saudi crude reaching the Red Sea by pipeline does part of the job a reopened strait would do. What I am watching is Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting, and whether tanker traffic through Hormuz starts to follow the export numbers.
💳 FICO lost a quarter of its value
On Monday, Bill Pulte, who runs the Federal Housing Finance Agency, posted on X that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are moving to “ONE PRICING GRID”. The 2 companies buy or guarantee a large share of American home loans. The change puts VantageScore, a rival credit score, on the same pricing grid as the FICO score, and it removes the 20-point markdown that VantageScore used to carry. Rocket Mortgage named VantageScore 4.0 its preferred score. No effective date has been published. HousingWire
Fair Isaac, the company behind FICO, closed down 26.5% at $617.87 on Tuesday. Benzinga called it the steepest one-day fall since 1989. The shares are now down 63.5% this year. Equifax and TransUnion, which sell credit data, fell too. GuruFocus
Why would a pricing grid do that? Price. The old markdown meant a loan scored with VantageScore could cost the borrower more, which gave lenders a reason to stick with FICO. With the markdown gone, the cheaper score competes on equal terms. TransUnion also said it will keep charging $0.99 for a VantageScore on mortgages until December 2028, against the $10 that FICO charges in 2026. Fair Isaac was already down 17% before Tuesday’s open.
Sensei’s Insight: A score that costs about $10 now competes on equal terms with one that costs $0.99, and the market priced that in a single session. What I am watching is the effective date, and how many lenders follow Rocket in switching.
🪙 Bitcoin heads for its best quarter since 2024
How good was the quarter? Bitcoin is up 42% since the end of June, its best quarter since the final 3 months of 2024, Investing.com reported. Ether is up about 70% and XRP 44.2%. Bitcoin was at $83,691 at midday UK time, up 0.08% on the day. Ether was up 0.39% at $2,687. The quarter ends at 1am UK on Thursday, which is 8pm on Wednesday in New York. Yahoo Finance
The fund money has kept coming, though it has slowed. US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $2.4 billion in the week to 25 September, their biggest week since last October. This week the daily figures dropped to $31.0 million on Monday and $66.2 million on Tuesday, Farside data showed. That still makes 9 straight days of inflows. Ether funds lost $2.8 million on Tuesday, which ended a 7-day inflow run. The Block
September is on course to break a pattern too. CoinDesk reported on Tuesday that a positive September would be the first after a positive August since 2013. The price has stalled below $85,000, and crypto has traded with bond yields this month, so this afternoon’s PCE reading matters here as well.
Sensei’s Insight: The funds put $2.4 billion into bitcoin in the week to 25 September, and this week that slowed to $31 million and $66 million a day. What I am watching is whether the daily inflows pick up again if PCE comes in soft.
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🇪🇺 Europe’s inflation jumped in September
France’s inflation on the EU measure rose to 3.4% in September from 2.6%, above the 3.1% forecast, with energy up 21.2% on the year. Italy’s national rate jumped to 4.2% from 3.3%, against 3.8% expected. Spain’s national rate reached 4.9% on Tuesday, its highest since February 2023. Germany’s figure lands at 1pm UK, 8am in New York, with 3.1% expected. The euro fell to $1.13 on Tuesday, its lowest since May 2025, and the dollar is up nearly 2.5% against it in September, Reuters reported. The eurozone reading follows on Friday. The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50% on 10 September. investingLive Business Recorder
🇬🇧 Britain grew faster than first thought
The UK economy grew 0.5% in the second quarter, the ONS said on Wednesday, revised up from its first estimate of 0.4%. Economists had expected the estimate to stay at 0.4%. Growth over the year was revised to 1.4% from 1.2%. Business investment rose 1.8% on the quarter, and the household saving ratio edged up to 8.8%. The FTSE 100 opened higher, led by miners, and was 0.12% lower by midday. Gilts rallied after the 10-year yield hit 5.44% on Monday, its highest since July 2007. The Bank of England’s next decision is on 5 November, 8 days after the 28 October Budget. investingLive
🤖 AI bosses signed a pledge to police themselves
The heads of Anthropic, Google, Meta and Nvidia, along with xAI founder Elon Musk and OpenAI’s Greg Brockman, signed a voluntary accord at the White House on Tuesday. It commits them to internal controls, an independent outside auditor and a board committee to review the auditor’s reports. It also says it “may make sense to codify” the steps later. President Trump called it “morally binding”. Critics pointed out that the companies drafted the principles and hire their own auditor. The same day, Bloomberg reported that OpenAI is seeking at least $30 billion at a valuation of about $1.4 trillion, after raising $122 billion at $852 billion in March. KPBS TechCrunch
🚢 Carnival rose 13% on record revenue
Carnival shares closed up 13.41% at $25.11 on Tuesday after the cruise operator reported record third-quarter revenue of $8.44 billion. Adjusted earnings were $1.43 a share, level with a year earlier, even after a 10-cent hit from fuel and currency. Analysts had expected about $1.36. Carnival paid $826 a metric ton for fuel, against $607 a year before, and it now expects about $2.24 a share for the full year. Carnival Motley Fool